Trump: We will leave in 2 to 3 weeks with or without an agreement

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On March 31, 2026, President Donald Trump stated that the US military campaign against Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury, could end within two to three weeks. He explicitly declared that a formal agreement with Tehran is “irrelevant” to the timeline for withdrawal.

He stated that the US will leave once he feels Iran has been “put into the stone ages” and rendered unable to develop a nuclear weapon for years.

Trump claimed that “regime change” has already been achieved, describing the current Iranian leadership as “much more reasonable”.

He asserted that the US will have “nothing to do with” the closed Strait of Hormuz after leaving, telling allies they must “go get your own oil” and defend the shipping lane themselves.

How did Iran react?

Deep divisions have surfaced between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC Chief Commander Ahmad Vahidi over how to handle the ongoing war and its severe toll on citizens’ livelihoods and the national economy, sources familiar with the matter told Iran International.

According to these sources, Pezeshkian has criticized the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for escalating tensions and carrying out attacks on neighboring countries, warning of the economic fallout such actions could provoke.

He has reportedly cautioned that without a ceasefire, Iran’s economy could collapse entirely within three to four weeks.

Iran’s President expressed willingness to end conflict

During a phone call with European Council President António Costa on March 31, 2026, Pezeshkian stated that Tehran has the “necessary will” to end the conflict as reported by BBC.

He emphasized that any cessation of hostilities requires “essential guarantees” that the US and Israel will not resume military action or repeat their “aggression” in the future.

Pezeshkian remarked that the US “does not believe in diplomacy,” noting that Iran had been attacked twice even while attempting to negotiate with Washington. Pezeshkian attributed the disruption in marine traffic to US and Israeli actions, stating it would only end when their “aggressive attacks” on Iran cease. 

Iranian FM confirms contact with US Special Envoy Witkoff

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on March 31, 2026, that while he is in direct contact with US special envoy Steve Witkoff, these interactions do not constitute formal negotiations, as reported by the WSJ.

Araghchi described the communications as an “exchange of messages” rather than diplomacy. These messages, which include “threats or exchanged views,” are delivered sometimes directly and sometimes through regional intermediaries.

He explicitly stated that Tehran has not responded to the 15-point proposal by the US, nor has it submitted any counter-proposals or conditions of its own.

The Foreign Minister reiterated that Iran has “no faith” in the results of negotiations with the US, citing previous instances where Washington launched attacks in the middle of diplomatic efforts.

He emphasized that Iran is not seeking a temporary ceasefire or “pause.” Instead, it will only accept a complete and permanent end to the war across the region, accompanied by guarantees and compensation for damages.

How about Israel?

Israel’s stance on the conflict remains more aggressive than the US timeline suggests. While President Trump has signaled a potential exit within two to three weeks, The Times of Israel reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli military maintain that their strategic objectives are not yet fully complete.

On March 30, Netanyahu stated that the war is “beyond the halfway point” in terms of missions, but not necessarily in terms of time. He has repeatedly defined the central goal as regime change and “systematically crushing” the Iranian government—a more expansive objective than Trump’s focus on nuclear dismantlement.

A military spokesperson confirmed on 31 March that the IDF is prepared for “weeks more” of fighting and has the “manpower and munitions” to continue regardless of political shifts in Washington, as reported by Reuters.

Netanyahu claims to be building “new alliances” in West Asia, suggesting that Israel is preparing for a long-term regional realignment following the conflict.

The White House announced that US President Donald Trump will deliver a televised prime-time address on Wednesday evening to provide an update on the war with Iran.

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Timeline

Feb 28: Combined US-Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian military and civilian infrastructure.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels resume attacks on Red Sea shipping.

Mar 2: IRGC officially declares the Strait of Hormuz closed, threatening to “set fire” to any vessel attempting passage.

Mar 3: Global energy markets react as shipping effectively halts; European natural gas prices surge by over 100% after a drone strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility.

Mar 5: Maritime insurance providers cancel war risk coverage for the Persian Gulf, making transit economically unviable for most commercial carriers.

Mar 8: Brent crude oil prices surpass $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as supply disruptions intensify.

Mar 9: G7 finance ministers meet to discuss releasing strategic reserves; the proposal is initially met with caution by some members.

Mar 10: The IEA calls an extraordinary meeting of its 32 member states to assess the supply crisis.

Mar 11: IEA member countries unanimously vote to release 400M barrels of oil, the largest in history.

Mar 13: US conducts a massive bombing raid on Iran’s primary oil terminal, Kharg Island.

Mar 14: A senior Iranian official tells CNN that Tehran may allow a limited number of tankers to pass the Strait of Hormuz, but only if the oil is traded in Chinese yuan, directly challenging the US dollar’s role in global energy.

Mar 15: President Trump first called for an international naval coalition to guard the Strait.

He also claimed that Iran was “desperate” for a deal and wanted to negotiate a ceasefire. On March 15 and 16, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refuted these claims.

Israeli PM Netanyahu releases a video from a Jerusalem café to show “proof of life”.

Mar 16: NATO allies and other key international partners officially declined President Trump’s request for warships.

Iran launches a drone and missile swarm at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE.

For the first time in the conflict, Iran fires ballistic missiles at Qatar, targeting areas near U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base.

A drone strike on a fuel depot near Dubai International Airport forces a five-hour suspension of all flights, paralyzing one of the world’s most critical transit hubs.

Mar 17: On the Persian New Year, Netanyahu addresses the Iranian people directly, stating that the “light of freedom” is coming, while simultaneously launching the heaviest bombardment of Tehran’s government district to date.

Israel confirmed the “elimination” of two of the most powerful figures, Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani, in the Iranian regime during precise strikes in Tehran.

Mar 18: Israeli airstrikes hit South Pars and the Asaluyeh hub in Iran.

Iran retaliates by firing ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf energy hubs.

Mar 19: President Trump warns Iran he will “massively blow up” the rest of South Pars if they strike Qatar again.

Trump publicly states he told PM Netanyahu to stop hitting Iranian energy sites to prevent further global oil spikes.

Netanyahu confirms Israel acted alone on South Pars but agrees to “hold off” on energy targets per Trump’s request.

Mar 20: Iran reportedly fired two ballistic missiles at the US-UK base in Diego Garcia.

The British government updated its policy to allow the US to use Diego Garcia for “specific and limited defensive operations” to degrade Iranian missile sites.

Qatar expels Iranian military attaches. The UAE suspends operations at the Habshan and Bab fields for safety.

China bans exports of refined petroleum to secure its own domestic supply.

Mar 21: Iran targets the Israeli towns of Arad and Dimona; over 100 civilians are injured and threatens to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump gives Iran 48 hours to guarantee the Strait stays open or face the destruction of its national power grid.

Mar 22: The US State Department issues a worldwide “increased caution” alert for citizens.

Reports emerge of Russia providing satellite intelligence to Iran to help bypass regional missile defenses.

Reports confirm fires at Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery and Saudi facilities in Riyadh following missile interceptions.

Mar 23: Trump announced a five-day moratorium on the planned strikes, to allow time for ongoing negotiations that could lead to a “complete and total resolution” of hostilities.

Mar 25 to 27 : Satellite imagery confirms Iran is moving ground troops and mines to Kharg Island to prevent a U.S. seizure.

Mar 27 to 30: The Pentagon began arriving with additional ground-capable forces, including units from the 82nd Airborne Division and the USS Tripoli.

Mar 29: Trump reveals the 15-Point Plan via Pakistan and suggests his “preference would be to take the oil” rather than destroy it.

Mar 30: Trump issues a final ultimatum to “obliterate” all Iranian energy facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened “shortly”.

Mar 31: Trump shocked markets by stating the U.S. could leave Iran within “two to three weeks”. He emphasized that a deal is “irrelevant” to the exit timeline, as military goals have been “met”.

Trump declared the U.S. is no longer responsible for securing the Strait of Hormuz, telling allies like France and the UK to manage their own energy security.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled a conditional willingness to end the conflict that Tehran possesses the “necessary will” to stop the war if specific requirements are met

An Iranian attack caused a large fire at fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport. Simultaneously, Iranian missile strikes in central Israel injured at least nine people in Tel Aviv.

Global fuel prices surged past $4 a gallon in the U.S. due to the continued effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

Apr 1: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that while messages were exchanged, there are no active negotiations with Washington.

U.S. and Israeli forces launched heavy strikes using 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on steel plants and pharmaceutical companies in Isfahan and Farokhshahr.

 

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