Russia’s final break from nuclear treaty

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Russia formally ended its self-imposed moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles in August 2025, signalling a further escalation in strategic tensions with the United States and a definitive break from Cold War-era arms control norms.

On 4 August 2025, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced that it would no longer adhere to its voluntary ban on deploying ground-launched intermediate-range missiles, citing deteriorating security conditions.

The move effectively closes the chapter on the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which had prohibited missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometres for over three decades.

Moscow said the “conditions for maintaining its unilateral moratorium have ceased to exist,” pointing to what it described as growing direct threats to its national security.

Russian officials specifically referenced US deployments of Typhon missile systems in the Philippines and plans to station “Dark Eagle” missiles in Germany as key triggers for the decision.

The announcement came amid heightened tensions between Washington and Moscow, including recent US military repositioning in response to increasingly confrontational rhetoric from Russian officials.

What led to this

The INF Treaty formally collapsed in 2019 after the United States withdrew, accusing Russia of violating the agreement through the development of prohibited missile systems. Russia denied the allegations but exited the treaty shortly after.

Despite the collapse, President Vladimir Putin had pledged that Russia would not deploy intermediate-range missiles unless the United States did so first, effectively maintaining a unilateral restraint for several years.

That position shifted in 2025 as US deployments in Europe and Asia moved forward, prompting Moscow to declare that continued adherence to the moratorium was no longer viable.

Broader implications

The end of the moratorium removes one of the last remaining informal constraints on a class of weapons once central to Cold War nuclear strategy.

Analysts warn the development increases the risk of a renewed arms race, particularly in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, where both sides may now expand missile deployments without treaty-based limitations.

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Timeline

Dec 1987: The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is signed, banning ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km.

Aug 2, 2019: The United States formally withdraws from the INF Treaty, citing Russian non-compliance.

Aug 2019 – 2020: Russia declares a unilateral moratorium, promising not to deploy these missiles as long as the U.S. does not deploy similar systems in Europe or Asia.

Feb 2023: Russia suspends its participation in New START, the last remaining major nuclear arms control treaty, though it initially pledges to follow numerical warhead limits.

July 24, 2025: Tensions escalate as the U.S. repositions nuclear submarines and confirms plans for the deployment of Typhon and Dark Eagle missiles in Germany by 2026.

Aug 4–5, 2025: Russia officially lifts its self-imposed ban. The Foreign Ministry states it “no longer considers itself limited by anything” regarding intermediate-range missile deployment.

Sep 2025: President Putin proposes a one-year mutual extension of New START limits beyond their 2026 expiration.

Nov 2025: Russia test-fires the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in combat against Ukraine, signaling the active service of previously banned missile classes.

Jan 2026: New START expires on Feb 5, 2026, marking the end of the final legal framework limiting the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.

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